The Shrinking Tax Base Problem No One Wants to Talk About

The U.S. Has a Revenue Problem and Venezuela Is Part of the Story

Happy New Year, Finance Hub. I hope you had time to rest, reset, and recharge over the holidays, because the new year is already moving fast. Within the first few days of 2026, we have our first major geopolitical headline.

There have been multiple reports, confirmed by President Trump about the “capture” of Venezuelan President, Nicolás Maduro. Reactions have ranged from optimism about a potential regime change to concern over the implications for international sovereignty. Whether this moment leads to a lasting shift or proves to be another temporary shock remains unclear. What matters, and what this article explores, is why it matters.

Venezuela sits at the intersection of energy, geopolitics, and the growing divide between Western nations and the BRICS alliance. Any instability there reopens questions about global alignment, resource control, and the future structure of economic power.

But beneath the headlines is a deeper issue that is fueling all this activity and affects you far more directly.

Demographics.

The real risk to the United States is the slow erosion of the very base that funds the system itself.

Before we dive into the topic of the day, I’ll share a cool and random economic fact of the week. Let’s call these RBI’s (Random But Interesting). These facts will give us useful info, often with a picture or chart to make it clearer. The aim is to help us make smarter financial choices

Random But Interesting (RBI)

Oil prices just closed one of their toughest years in decades. WTI crude fell roughly 20% in 2025, marking its largest annual decline since the 2020 pandemic.

After finishing flat in 2024, this makes 2025 the third consecutive year without positive returns.

Both the International Energy Agency and the U.S. government estimate that global oil production exceeded consumption by approximately 2 million barrels per day in 2025, with the surplus expected to grow further in 2026.

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Now, back to our regular scheduled topic: